Can the fiscal 2011 budget be passed in the Diet ?

The DPJ administration has approved a 92.41 trillion yen budget for fiscal 2011.
The budget revenue consists of 41 trillion yen in tax income, 7 trillion yen in non tax revenue and 44 trillion yen in government bonds.
The biggest problem with the budget is that the government bond issuance exceeds that of tax revenue, which has occurred for the second year running.

According to the constitution of Japan, the decision for the budget takes place in the Lower House instead of the Upper House.
Currently, the DPJ has the majority in the Lower House, but not the Upper House.

Therefore, even if the budget doesn't make it through the Upper House, it will be established.
However, if bills related to the budget are denied in the Upper House, the Lower House needs a two-thirds majority in the Lower House to be passed.
But the DPJ does not have a two-thirds majority in the Lower House.

The DPJ therefore depend on NEW KOMEITO to pass the bills related to the budget in the Upper House.
If NEW KOMEITO denies the bills, the fiscal 2011 budget cannot be inacted, which will put extraordinary pressure on society.

Prime Minister Naoto Kan may lose his credibility, which may result in the resignation of the entire Cabinet or dissolution of the Lower House.

However contrarily, if NEW KOMEITO does agree to the bills, it may be construed that NEW KOMEITO lent their hands to the DPJ.
This would be a disadvantage to NEW KOMEITO in the nationwide local elections in April 2011.

It is extremely difficult for NEW KOMEITO to take any option on this matter.